Harris Narrowly Leads Trump in Final Days Before Election, Poll Shows

In a tense final stretch before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump, according to YouGov’s latest national election model. Released Friday, the model places Harris 3 points ahead of Trump in the national popular vote, capturing 50 percent of voter support compared to Trump’s 47 percent. With a close race unfolding, the outcome remains uncertain in several key battleground states.

The current electoral map shows Harris with 240 electoral votes to Trump’s 218, leaving about 80 votes in critical toss-up states. This latest update marks a slight shift since YouGov’s previous model on October 16, where Harris was ahead with 250 electoral votes, while Trump had 219. The most recent data indicates tightening races in areas previously thought more secure.

Key battlegrounds include Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, as YouGov’s model now omits Michigan from the list of primary swing states. Harris has a narrow edge in Nevada, with 50 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, while Trump leads in Arizona by the same margin, indicating a competitive landscape.

In North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Harris is favored by 49 percent of voters compared to Trump’s 48 percent. Wisconsin shows a similar trend, with Harris leading 49 percent to Trump’s 47 percent. However, Georgia appears to lean slightly toward Trump, who holds a 1-point advantage at 49 percent to Harris’s 48 percent.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index also reflects the tightness of the race, giving Harris a fractional lead over Trump, with 48.3 percent support to his 48 percent. The national poll surveyed 57,784 registered voters between October 25 and 31, with a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. As both campaigns make their final pushes in the closing days, voter turnout in these battleground states may ultimately decide the election.